Blackjack Odds
Blackjack is a game of skill. The more you understand the odds of the game, the more likely you are to win.
There is a reason that a player is supposed to hit 12 against a 2 or 3. That is because the odds are with the player based on all of the possible outcomes. There are also reasons why the rules change from one game to another based on the number of decks, variation or simply the generosity of the house.
The most basic odds to know are how often a hand is dealt. We will go over those, as well as how each rule change affects you as a blackjack player.
Odds of Getting Dealt Certain Hands
This list below represents the odds of receiving a hand based on the first two cards dealt in single deck blackjack. Due to the small numbers, they are rounded to the nearest tenth of a percentage point. These include soft hands, meaning that it includes an ace.
- Blackjack: 4.8%
- 20: 10.5%
- 19: 6%
- 18: 6.5%
- 17: 7.2%
Odds of Busting a Blackjack Hand
Below is a list of hands that may bust. These do not include soft hands, which include an ace that may still be used as one point. These percentages apply to both dealer and player hands. These are rounded to the closest whole percentage point.
This also assumes the next card is a bust. If a small card is received, refer to the new hand value for the proper blackjack odds.
- 12: 31%
- 13: 39%
- 14: 56%
- 15: 58%
- 16: 62%
- 17: 69%
- 18: 77%
- 19: 85%
- 20: 92%
- 21: 100%
The numbers above prove why players should stand on 17 and higher. The exception is when the 17 is soft. An 18 that is soft should also be hit against a 9, 10 or ace. It should also be doubled against a 2-6, when permitted.
Odds of Dealer Busting Based on Door Card
These are the odds of the dealer busting, based on his exposed card. The odds include a bust on any
number of cards and are rounded to the nearest whole percent.
- 2: 35%
- 3: 37%
- 4: 40%
- 5: 42%
- 6: 42%
- 7: 26%
- 8: 24%
- 9: 23%
- 10: 23%
- Ace: 17%
This shows why it is important to hit to at least a hard 17 against a dealer’s 7 or higher. The chances of the dealer making a hand is far too high to stay on a 16 hoping the dealer busts these made door cards.
How Rules Affect Odds
There are a variety of rules that can change the blackjack odds. The odds tend to be better at online
casinos than the Las Vegas Strip or Atlantic City. These show how the house edge is worse based on the rule change.
- Blackjack pays 6-5: -1.39%
- Dealer hits soft 17: -.22%
- Double on 10 or 11 only: -.18%
- European blackjack hole card rule: -.11%
- Double on 9-11 only: -.09%
- No re-split aces: -.08%
- No surrender: -.07%
Check out our basic blackjack strategy chart to help you make decisions on what you should do while playing taking into consideration your cards against the blackjack dealer.
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